Lockdown – Reflections at the end of week 37

It became plain at an early stage of the Covid virus having become a dominant part of our lives that its influence would cease only when either enough people had contracted it to build up herd immunity or an effective vaccine was developed. The former offered a long and painful journey, the latter a journey which, whilst painful, would be considerably shorter.

The big story this week is, unusually for the last 8 months plus, a good one. In the words of The Sun’s headline, The Needle has Landed, bringing with it the hope of an end to physical and emotional suffering and a return to the freedoms associated with day to day life which we had not realised were freedoms until the virus took them away from us. Ignore the political ballyhoo, and in particular the determination of the Education Secretary to demonstrate to us that the Education Department’s gain has not been the Diplomatic Service’s loss, and yesterday has to be regarded as a good day.

A return to normal is being heralded, the only debate of the moment being when that will take place as the logistical challenges of administering the vaccine to tens of millions of people are tackled. But what will that normal be?

This week, we have seen the collapse of two high street heavyweights in the form of Arcadia, with its many brands, and Debenhams with its many shops. The jobs of 25,000 people are under direct threat, and the prospect looms of the gaps in our high streets caused by empty shops yawning yet further. It is likely that others will follow. This morning, Warner Brothers announced that in 2021, all of their movies would debut on HBO Max on the same day as they opened in cinemas. On the face of it, this may seem to be a move designed to deal with cinemas being prevented from opening or being subject to audience restrictions. In reality, it could spell the end for local cinemas. Although in tier 1 and tier 2 areas they are allowed to open under restrictions, hospitality businesses throughout the country are fighting for survival and a number will fail.

I really don’t like shopping and have never understood its appeal as a leisure activity, but I do understand the role that shops have played in the development and prosperity of town and city centres. Without footfall in town centres, pubs, restaurants, cafes and retailers of take away food will struggle further. Closed cinemas will create big holes in off town centre developments where they are often a key feature, with there being no obvious immediate use for buildings which are so specifically designed for their current use. The decline in high street shops has been coming for a while, with lockdown accelerating the move to online purchasing which has been going on for some time. It’s not just about rent and business rates either. It’s also about stock holding and availability. As a boy, I used to be taken to George Henry Lee’s department store in the middle of Liverpool to buy school uniform. It was an old fashioned department store which appeared to sell everything, and you got the impression that if you’d said that you wanted to buy an elephant that day, they’d have given you a choice of at least four. High street retailers have increasingly been driven into only stocking what they know they can sell. Online retailers, particularly those who also operate as market channels for others, are under no such constraints.

So the threat to our town and city centres is clear, but as with all threats comes opportunity. A quick and radical rethink is required to avoid them becoming either ghostly shells or acres of flats sitting uneasily in converted shops punctuated by the occasional convenience store and turn them into places that people will want to spend time in. Local authorities won’t be able to do this on their own, and a short term approach from central government which sees cramming flats into former shops as a quick means of achieving new housing targets will not serve us well for the long term.

But for a while at least, let’s enjoy the moment when the end of lockdown restrictions has truly come into sight. It is a truly remarkable week when Jacob Rees Mogg (remember him?-we may see more of him if the current stumble in the Brexit trade talks turns into a full blown tumble) has been openly musing about whether Santa and the elves need a Covid jab or they will be afforded a travel corridor to make their deliveries in three weeks’ time.

As I write this, it’s snowing. Enjoy your wintry weekend.

Expert
Ian Waine
Senior Partner