Lockdown – Reflections at the end of week 36

This has felt like a busy week. We have seen more detail about the Oxford vaccine, the chancellor’s announcement of the spending review, confirmation of what will happen in England after the current phase of lockdown and the rules around socialising at Christmas have been unveiled.

The changes which are proposed to take effect from 2nd December will allow theatres to open in Tier 1 and Tier 2 areas. It is likely that pantomimes will be prominent amongst what’s on offer, but I suspect that few will be putting on a production of Waiting for Godot. After this week, to do so would be to affirm that life does, from time to time, imitate art.

If you strip back the newspaper headline puns about tiers and the commentary on the spending review and look at the announcements, it’s hard to see anything surprising. Except in the case of Cornwall and the Isle of Wight, life after the current lockdown is still going to be pretty restricted and it is consistent with the advice of the government’s scientific officers that, with daily infections still being counted in 5 figure numbers that this approach is taken. The chancellor has little room for manoeuvre and, against the background of a significantly damaged economy, will have to deal with rising unemployment levels. Whilst the figures announced were eye-watering peacetime records (and not of the good kind), they were not unexpected.

So why the disappointment and anger in the reaction to the post lockdown measures? In part, there are issues of principle at play, with some government back benchers in particular suggesting that continuing restrictions will do more damage than good. The other issue seems to be that the new spinning team at Number 10 does not yet seem to have persuaded the Prime Minister that, if you’re going to spin the story, you’re much better to under promise and over deliver than the converse. It seemed from noises made prior to yesterday’s announcement that greater freedom was on the way. However, rather like the much heralded Godot, they didn’t turn up, leaving a sense of the large and beautifully wrapped present which turns out to be the usual socks or toiletry set.

And so the 16th December when they are going to be reviewed again. It seems unlikely that we’ll be let off the leash pre-Christmas for fear of crowded pubs and office parties, so it will be interesting to see how, apart from being told to be jolly careful, we’ll be warmed up for that one.

The spending review also raises some speculation about the detail that will follow. Whilst it did not speak of tax rises, they are inevitable, but it’s a question of when and how much as their likely impact is balanced against the need for consumer confidence and disposable income to drive economic recovery. Capital Gains Tax has been openly considered, and seems likely to be a candidate for an early increase, but there have not been many other indications to date as to where increases may come through. There is also a debate about the extent to how effective infrastructure projects are in creating jobs, with a number of commentators suggesting that increased mechanization makes them much less effective than they used to be. The UK economy has suffered more than many other large economies in the Covid months because of its reliance on the service sector, and it will be interesting to see if the government seeks to incentivise manufacturing in its job creation schemes in an attempt to address that imbalance.

Whilst this week has seen a lot of excitement to get nowhere in particular, there have been some other things to think about. The Covid headlines have kept us away from Brexit, but the final push for a deal is starting amid some relatively positive noises. We have seen Donald Trump start to bow to the inevitable, albeit protesting all the way. And my dog has learned to shake hands and to roll over.

Keep on keeping on and have a good, if chilly, weekend.

Expert
Ian Waine
Senior Partner