21 is an interesting number to many people. It is interesting to mathematicians for a variety of reasons, including the distinguishing characteristic that it is not only a Fibonacci number but the smallest non-trivial Fibonacci number whose digits are also Fibonacci numbers and whose digit sum is also a Fibonacci number. It is an auspicious number to many numerologists and in some religions. It is important to card players and the players of a number of sports as a target or winning number. And we are now coming to the end of week 21 of lockdown in the UK.

It’s been a while since the last numbers edition, so this week’s thoughts are based again on numbers, not only because there are some significant numbers around but it also means that I won’t fall victim to the temptation to devote the entire piece to the A level fiasco, of which a little comes later. The numbers for contemplation this week are:

• 730,000 – this is the number which the Office for National Statistics has released as its estimate of how may fewer people were in payrolled employment in July than there were in March, the month in which the lockdown began. This is the largest quarterly drop since May - July 2009. Not only is it a significant number, but it is likely to grow further and quickly as the winding down of the furlough scheme makes maintaining employment on a wait and see basis more difficult for employers. The number does not include the impact of the downturn on self-employed people who remain a largely hidden group within the more publicised official statistics, but they are included in the number of people claiming income benefits. The claimant number is 2.7m, an increase of 116.8% since March, whilst the number of people on furlough was estimated at 7.5m in June.
   
• 20.4% - it was not news to most of us this week that the UK is in recession, but the news story was the official confirmation that we are. 20.4% is the drop in GDP in the period from April to June when compared with January to March and is the biggest quarterly drop on record. That these figures include a measure of recovery in May and June shows just how deep and sudden the impact of the early part of the lockdown was.
   
• 25 - the number of Chancellors of the Exchequer to hold office since the end of the Second World War. I don’t think that any of them will have faced a bigger set of conflicting challenges than number 25, Rishi Sunak. His ongoing need for good advice, good judgement and good luck remains hard to overstate.
   
• 39.1%, 2.5% and 149 - are all numbers relating to A levels. 149 is the number of days that  elapsed between the announcement that A level candidates would not sit exams this year and the day on which results were announced, a not inconsiderable period of time in which to devise and implement a clear, transparent and genuinely robust system of assessment to replace exams. 39.1% is the number of grades that were marked down under the system adopted, and 2.5% is the apparently unshakeable number by which grades overall have to go up, apparently because it is just felt that they should. For those of us who believe in the importance of education, including its role in supporting social mobility, the results are a disaster, as pupils’ hard work and futures have been supplanted by a statistically based model which has, by reason of aspects of its design, appeared to have produced results which are inconsistent and, in many cases, unfair and  to have discriminated against those from less wealthy backgrounds. Life’s going to be hard enough for this generation of school leavers who will be paying the costs of Covid for most of their working lives. It is piling unfairness on top of unfairness that their futures, and their trust in education, have been so adversely impacted by a system which seems to have been unduly influenced by the politically driven need to produce just the right amount of grade inflation.
   
• 217% - on a lighter note, this is the increase of sales of Pimm’s since 7th August reported by a substantial regional retailer this week. Not entirely unexpected perhaps, alongside increases in sales of salad ingredients, beer and ice cream (Home Secretary please take note). Less expected, perhaps, would be an increase in sales of banana flavoured milk, a 42% increase in sales of chocolate trifle, a 329% increase in the sales of Galia melons and an enormous 412% increase in sales of tomato and basil sourdough bread. An intriguing mix and an interesting conundrum for those responsible for stocking policy.

Enjoy the weekend and go easy on the banana milk and chocolate trifle.

Ian Waine leads Prettys’ Corporate Services Team and has advised on a large number of corporate recovery and corporate restructuring cases over the last 30 years. He can be contacted on 07979 498817 or iwaine@prettys.co.uk.