Lockdown – Reflections at the end of week 31

This has been another week of frenzied activity and frenzied reporting. It feels like many of us are feeling a little punch drunk by the breadth of the issues which are at large and the twists and turns in what is being or has been done in the face of high levels of new infection and the accompanying rise in Covid related hospital occupancy and deaths. There are also some counter intuitive developments, one of the more striking being this morning’s reported rise in retail sales which seems to be inconsistent with rising job losses. So, in no particular order, here are some parts of my thought processes in trying to make sense of it all:

  1. It feels a little like we are in the horrible stage of the long family car journey. We, the children in the back, are fed up with it, and our constant cries of are we nearly there yet take place against a background of a lower commitment to compliance and a greater tendency to misbehave. The government plays the role of the adults in the front. It, as do we, knows that the destination will be reached, but doesn’t know when and has the job of ensuring that we get there with the least harm done. It’s a difficult situation, and one where there is a blend of admonishment, cajoling, appealing to better nature, promises and punishment all going on at the same time.
  2. Yesterday’s announcement by the Chancellor will, it is reported, deliver an additional £22m to businesses in the Manchester area, yet we have just had a major standoff between the government and the local government of Manchester over £5m. So was the standoff about politics, with the government already knowing that additional help was on its way, has the additional help only just been devised or was it always in the planning but victim to poor communication between Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street? Regardless of the questions, the additional help to those in areas subject to tighter lockdown restrictions, including elements of back payment, will be welcomed.
  3. It seems that there is confusion at large not in relation to what people are allowed to do within a particular tier, but over how they affect people who move between tiers. That confusion, together with the introduction of ever larger fines for non-compliance, creates the risk of people regarding the rules not as a co-operative effort and a social duty but as laws which are not enforced very often so you can probably get away with infringing them. It feels as if a lot of the collectivity of the first lockdown has been lost.
  4. Another factor which appears to be in play is the tendency of the government to deliver pessimistic messages only by reference to the short term, with a continuing note of optimism for the longer term. To return to the car journey analogy, if those in the front of the car keep promising those in the back that the journey’s end is just around the next corner, those in the back will lose faith in the message when the next corner turns into the next corner after that and the one after that.
  5. Given the difficulties created by 3 tiers in England, I’m not sure how 5 tiers, which is an approach being trailed today, will work in Scotland. Wales has, in the meantime, joined Northern Ireland in starting a full lockdown. I can’t yet see that this may not, in the end, be where the whole of the UK is headed.
  6. It is being suggested that, in the course of time, some government departments will be moved from London to the north of England. This feels more like a gesture or outpost of empire at this stage, rather than something which will play a substantial part in healing the rapidly growing North/South divide. Don’t expect a hero’s welcome when they arrive.
  7. This week’s gesture by Newcastle United supporters in paying the amount that they would otherwise be asked to pay to broadcasters to have access to their team’s live game to a local foodbank was notable for a variety of reasons. It highlighted the issue of growing urban poverty as well as signalling to the powers that be in football and in other commercial areas that they need to be sensitive to the current situation and cannot act in isolation from it. It also highlighted the insensitivity of those who started to punt the idea of a European super league this week, backed by $6bn from an investment bank which can only make the rich richer, rank and file supporters poorer and the existence of lower league clubs even more in the balance.

I am conscious that there’s not a lot of joy in this week’s musings, but it’s been a punishing week and, in the unimpeachable judgement of those with whom I live (apart from the dog), I’m a fully-fledged grumpy old man. I’ll promise to try harder to find the nuggets next week.

Expert
Ian Waine
Senior Partner