Lockdown and beyond – Reflections at the end of week 75

There are worse lives to have than that of a British middle class family’s dog. As I write this, my dog has been out for a gambol across the fields, has been fed and is now curled up in an old chair in my study putting in a hard shift of sleep until around 11 o’clock. Of course, it is possible that instead of dreaming of rabbits and pheasants, she is thinking deeply about life, the world and the universe, but I don’t think so. It’s an interesting trade off-a lovely life but a relatively short one, albeit that the lifespan is not likely to be a cause of existential angst or other anxiety.

In weeks like this one, it’s not a bad way to be. It has been a week where events have had such a scale or been of such a nature that it’s hard to take them in. The speed of events in Afghanistan has been extraordinary and the events themselves have been both shocking and bewildering. Fear and suffering have now been supplemented by terrorism as divisions between Islamic fundamentalists are made manifest in the taking of life from people who are not party to the argument and who, indeed, are doing their best to get away from it or to enable other people to do so. It is hard to comprehend on a human level how these things can happen and why they assume a grim inevitability.

But happen they have, and we on the outside of Afghanistan will hold our inquests while the vast majority of those who remain there will be left to find both means and the luck to survive the situation which the world’s governments, with the exception of those who choose to fuel a proxy war in their country, seem content to abandon them to. It will be interesting to see what the attitude of our Home Office will be to those from Afghanistan who bob across the Channel in people smugglers’ inflatable boats in years to come will be. It will also be interesting to see whether President Biden’s current discomfort, caused to a substantial degree by a failure of both state intelligence and implementation of the withdrawal, creates an opening for Trump-style Republicanism to return. The irony of the root cause of the current situation being Donald Trump’s agreement with the Taliban to withdraw from Afghanistan would be sizeable were that to happen. In the meantime, the role of the US in international affairs, the nature of the special relationship and how special or otherwise it is and our own government’s performance in the current debacle are up for grabs.

The position of Afghanistan has made it commercially or strategically important for centuries. It was an important part of the route of the Silk Road and, as such, a significant conduit for goods and people. It was also one of the places through which bubonic plague passed with those goods and traders on its way to Europe. Recent events in Afghanistan have knocked the current pandemic off the front pages, but it’s still there and is producing numbers which are hard to get to grips with given what has gone before. In the UK, new infection levels are high, being consistently over 30,000 and rapidly rising towards being consistently over 40,000, numbers in hospitals are growing and the daily Covid-related deaths figure, reported as a footnote and so not in the consciousness of many, is consistently at over 100 per day. Whilst the proportion of new infections which result in hospitalization or death is significantly lower than in the early part of the year, they’re still significant numbers in the context of both of those who become ill and the capacity of the NHS. They are bound to rise after this weekend, not least because of the number of music festivals which are taking place. Time will tell if government policy is vindicated by the longer term outcome, and I very much hope that it is. It is nevertheless striking and a little thought provoking that numbers which were regarded as terrifying a few months ago have moved so quickly to getting only a nod from news editors and a shrug of the shoulders from a large part of the population.

Amid the bewilderment and distress, there remain reasons to be cheerful. In the chaos of Afghanistan, there is courage and selflessness. In Tokyo, there is a triumph of human spirit playing out day by day. When the pampered animal and I go for our walk in the morning, we see deer, hares, enormous East Anglian skies and fledgling birds of prey learning how to use them and in that, we have to count our blessings.

The last long weekend before Christmas beckons (what’s he doing mentioning Christmas already I hear many of you cry) and I hope you have an enjoyable and peaceful one.

Ian Waine leads Prettys’ Corporate Services Team and has advised on a large number of corporate recovery and corporate restructuring cases over the last 30 years. He can be contacted at 07979 498817 or iwaine@prettys.co.uk.

Expert
Ian Waine
Senior Partner