Christmas is coming…

For many of us, Christmas becomes a time to reflect when we look back as well as forward. As I write this, from a personal point of view I am nearing the end of a year of significant activity. Strategic sales to private equity-backed consolidators, a major transaction in the transport and logistics sector and the extraordinary rush of transactions which had to be done by 29th October to beat the rises in capital gains tax which were predicted to be part of the Budget all played their part.

So what of the broader picture? In the UK, it’s been a time of change as an election called earlier than most expected brought in a Labour government with an extraordinary majority, due in no small measure to the combination of voter frustration splitting the right-leaning vote and the first past the post system. The feeling of change in the air as a party which had not been in government for 14 years started to wane as it issued wave after wave of warnings that things were going to be tough (and it wasn’t their fault), became entangled in internal dispute, experienced a minor scandal which led to a resignation from the Cabinet and committed a couple of U-turns. Sadly, it hasn’t been a period to reinstate the trust of a weary electorate. Inflation sticking above 2% and interest rates not falling as quickly as many had hoped haven’t helped to lighten the mood. With the Conservative Party in abeyance and nursing its wounds, Nigel Farage must be licking his lips as he puts the begging bowl out in the direction of Elon Musk who appears keen to use his spectacular wealth to buy political influence. What price might you get on a Prime Minister Farage and President Musk combination in 2029?

Which leads us on to Elon Musk’s new friend Donald Trump.  I was in the US in mid-October as frenetic wooing of voters in the swing states was being met with the boredom of an electorate who had largely made their minds up months ago and who just wanted it all to be over. In the end, Donald Trump’s criminal convictions, his connection with the 6^th January riots and bizarre claims (remember the one about immigrants eating pet cats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio?) counted for relatively little with the majority of voters. The decisive factor proved to be inflation, the responsibility for which was laid firmly at the feet of the Biden/Harris administration notwithstanding that it was a global economic phenomenon. The next four years are going to be an interesting ride. Donald Trump’s previous record in office shows the hyperbole during the campaign not to have been matched in many cases by what was actually undertaken in office. Mind you, at that time the Republican Party did not have majorities in both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court so it’s hard to see where the checks and balances on his incoming administration will come. There wasn’t a war in Ukraine, conflict in Gaza or an uncertain position in Syria either.

And then there are political crises at the heart of the EU in France and Germany, and in South Korea…

But in amongst all the political turmoil, there is Christmas, the season of peace and goodwill. Whilst we won’t see the retailers’ figures until January, there are indications of a cut-down Christmas, with reports of smaller Christmas trees being bought and smaller turkeys being ordered. For many of us, that’s not an immediate concern because, at the heart of it all, Christmas and the days that follow it are a time when families and friends gather and enjoy one another’s company and any troublesome stuff on the other side of the front door can be forgotten. For some, it’s a time of loneliness, sadness or financial struggle, and they deserve our care and compassion.

However you spend it, can I send you best wishes for the season and a New Year when hope can be renewed and life can, perhaps, become less weighed down by those whose role in life is to peddle gloom.

I’d certainly raise a festive glass to that.